Advertisement

Flood Forecasting for the Upper and Middle Odra River Basin

  • M. Butts
  • A. Dubicki
  • K. Stronska
  • G. JØrgensen
  • A. Nalberczynski
  • A. Lewandowski
  • T. van Kalken
Part of the Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research book series (NTHR, volume 25)

Abstract

The objective of the authors’ work in the area of flood forecasting and distributed modelling is to determine how different model formulations and different rainfall inputs contribute to forecast accuracy and uncertainty. To address these issues within the EU project FLOODRELIEF, a comprehensive distributed catchment model has been formulated and tested for the upper and middle Odra River. Within the FLOODRELIEF project multiple distributed modelling approaches, including the model presented here, are being developed for the Odra basin. The objectives of developing these different modelling approaches are; to evaluate the performance of these different models in representing the catchment processes and river flows, to examine the effect of model structure on the character of flow simulation and prediction uncertainty and to examine the sensitivity of these models to different rainfall input The Odra basin was selected for these analyses as a flood-prone catchment representing highly developed European catchments where comprehensive modelling of the river system, flood plains, polder subsystems, and structures as well as rainfall-runoff and snowmelt processes in the tributary catchments are required. Flood forecasting in the Odra requires both fast and reliable simulations for this complicated river basin and therefore a careful balance between accurate representation of the catchment flood processes, the flood wave movement and inundation extent and the need for rapid forecasts This paper describes the formulation, calibration, validation and real-time implementation of an operational distributed model for flood forecasting for the upper and middle Odra. This application shows that the MIKE 11 distributed model is able to reproduce the large-scale rainfall-runoff processes and the propagation of the flood wave through the main river channel system including the catastrophic flood of July 1997. This model is therefore suitable as a reference for the evaluations of different models and model structures in our investigations of simulation and forecast uncertainty. A model post-audit was carried out which identified cases where simplified representations in the rainfall-runoff models that performed well in the calibration, requires revision for the validation period. This type of post-audit analysis is extremely valuable in evaluating model performance and ensuring continuing improvement in flood forecasting accuracy

Keywords

Upper and Middle Odra distributed hydrological modelling flood forecasting model calibration and validation flow simulation uncertainty 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bell VA, Moore RJ (1998) A grid-based distributed flood forecasting model for use with weather radar: Part 2. Case studies. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences 2(3):283–298CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bronstert A, Ghazi A, Hladny J, Kundzewicz ZW, Menzel L (1998) The extreme flood in the Odra/Oder river basin in summer 1997:Summary and conclusions from a European expert meeting. In:Bronstert, Ghazi, Hladny, Kundzewicz, Menzel (eds) Proceedings of the European expert meeting on the Oder flood 1997, May 1998, Potsdam Germany RIBAMOD Concerted Action, 7–14Google Scholar
  3. Butts MB, Klinting A, van Kalken T, Cadman D, Fenn C, Høst-Madsen J (2001) Design and development of an internet-based flood forecasting system using real-time rainfall, radar, and river flow data. In: Falconer RA, Blain WR (eds) Proc. of river basin management, Cardiff 2001, WIT Press, pp 139–148Google Scholar
  4. Butts MB, Hoest-Madsen J, Refsgaard JC (2002). Hydrologic forecasting, encyclopaedia of physical science and technology, 3rd edn., 2002, pp 547–566Google Scholar
  5. Butts M (2003) FLOODRELIEF – A real-time decision support system integrating hydrological, meteorological and radar technologies, Invited paper in international conference on advances in flood forecasting in Europe, Rotterdam, 3–5 March, 2003Google Scholar
  6. Butts MB, Payne JT, Kristensen M, Madsen H (2004) An evaluation of the impact of model structure and complexity on hydrological modelling uncertainty for streamflow prediction. Journal of Hydrology 298: 242–266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chojnacki J (1998). Analysis of the flood damages in July 1997 in Polish basin Odra river (in Polish), Proceedings of the second international conference:The Odra and its catchment. Flood 1997, Kudowa Zdroj, 7–9.09.1998, Published by Agricultural University in Wroclaw, Publication No. 339, Conferences XXI, vol. 1., Wroclaw 1998 pp 115–126Google Scholar
  8. Duan Q, Sorooshian S, Gupta V (1992) Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall–runoff models. Water Resour Res 28(4): 1015–1031CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Dubicki A (1998) The Odra flood event 1997:Characteristics of the process of rising and development of anti-flood management. Proc. of the second study conference on BALTEX, Juliusruh, Island of Rugien, Germany, 25–29 May 1998, Published by International BALTEX Secretariat, Publication No. 11, May 1998Google Scholar
  10. Finnerty BD, Smith MB, Koren V, Seo D-J, Moglen G (1997) Space-time scale sensitivity of the sacramento model to radar-gage precipitation inputs. Journal of Hydrology 203: 21–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gottlieb L, Jensen RA, Jørgensen GH (1980) Development of a snow routine and applications to runoff simulation In:Proceedings of the nordic hydrological conference, 1980Google Scholar
  12. Grunewald U (1998) Causes, development and consequences of the Oder flood. In:Bronstert A, Ghazi A, Hladny J, Kundzewicz ZW, Menzel L (eds) Proceedings of the European expert meeting on the Oder flood 1997, May 1998, Potsdam Germany RIBAMOD Concerted Action, 27–36Google Scholar
  13. Havnø K, Madsen MN, Dørge J (1995) MIKE 11 – A generalized river modelling package, In:Singh VP (ed) Computer models of watershed hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Colorado, USA pp 733–782Google Scholar
  14. Jørgensen G, Høst-Madsen J (1997) Development of a flood forecasting system in Bangladesh. In:Refsgaard JC, Karalis EA (eds) Operational water management, Proceedings of the European water resources association conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3–6 September, 1997. AA Balkema pp 137–148Google Scholar
  15. Konikow LF (1986) Predictive accuracy of a groundwater model-lessons from postaudit. Ground Water 24: 173–184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kuczera G (1997) Efficient subspace probabilistic parameter optimization for catchment models. Water Resour Res 33(1): 177–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Madsen H (2000) Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives. Journal of Hydrology 235: 276–288CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Malitz G (1998) Hydrometeorological aspects of the Oder flood 1997. In:Bronstert A, Ghazi A, Hladny J, Kundzewicz ZW, Menzel L (eds) Proceedings of the European expert meeting on the Oder flood 1997, May 1998, Potsdam Germany RIBAMOD Concerted Action, pp 43–52Google Scholar
  19. Nielsen SA, Hansen E (1973) Numerical simulation of the rainfall-runoff process on a daily basis. Nordic Hydrology 4: 171–190Google Scholar
  20. Reed S, Koren V, Smith M, Zhang Z, Moreda F, Seo D-J, DMIP Participants (2004) Overall distributed model intercomparison project results. Journal of Hydrology 298 (1–4), 1 October 2004, 27–60Google Scholar
  21. Refsgaard JC (1997) Validation and intercomparison of different updating procedures for real-time forecasting. Nordic Hydrology, 28: 65–84Google Scholar
  22. Refsgaard JC, Knudsen J (1996) Operational validation and intercomparison of different types of hydrological models. Water Resources Research 32(7): 2189–2202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Rungø M, Refsgaard JC, Havnø K (1989) The updating procedure in the MIKE 11 modelling system for real-time forecasting. Proceeding from the international symposium on hydrological applications of weather radar, Salford, UK, August, 1989Google Scholar
  24. Smith MB, Seo D-J, Koren VI, Reed SM, Zhang Z, Duan Q, Moreda F, Cong S (2004) The distributed model intercomparison project (DMIP):motivation and experiment design. Journal of Hydrology, 298, (1–4), 1 October 2004, 4–26Google Scholar
  25. WMO (1986) Intercomparison of models of snowmelt runoff. Operational Hydrology Report No. 23Google Scholar
  26. WMO (1992) Simulated real-time intercomparison of hydrological models. Operational Hydrology Report No. 38Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. Butts
    • 1
  • A. Dubicki
    • 2
  • K. Stronska
    • 2
  • G. JØrgensen
    • 1
  • A. Nalberczynski
    • 3
  • A. Lewandowski
    • 4
  • T. van Kalken
    • 5
  1. 1.River & Flood Management DepartmentDHI Water & EnvironmentDK 2970 HørsholmDenmark
  2. 2.Institute of Meteorology and Water ManagementIMGW Wroclaw WroclawPoland
  3. 3.Regional Water Development AuthorityRZGW, WroclawWroclawPoland
  4. 4.GEOMORGeoscience and Marine Research & ConsultingGdanskPoland
  5. 5.DHI Water & Environment Pty LtdSuite 1a, 2 Elliott Street Bundall, QLD 4217QLD 9726Australia

Personalised recommendations