Abstract
Chapter 11 argued for an approach that placed risk management in service of a specific goal in the development of strategy: outcome assessment. This recommendation stems from two of the dominant lessons of the financial crisis: that the concept of risk had become fragmented and incoherent; and that many of the most common cognitive and framing errors push decision-makers toward urgent, nonconsequentialist thinking. Developing a single coherent approach to risk, and focusing risk analysis on outcomes, are the first steps toward the effective employment of risk as a component of a larger strategy process.
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Notes
Jonathan Baron, Thinking and Deciding, 4th ed. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 199–228.
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (New York: Crown, 2015).
See, for example, Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner, Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon (New York: Times Books, 2011), 127.
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Mazarr, M.J. (2016). Principles of Effective Risk Management. In: Rethinking Risk in National Security. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-91843-0_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-91843-0_13
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, New York
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-94887-1
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-91843-0
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