Forecasting has been one of the main applications of KK systems since they first made their appearance in the early post-war years. Two types of KK forecasting may be distinguished: (i) arithmetical forecasting; and (ii) judgemental forecasting. The first type will be discussed in this section and the next and the second type in section 9.3. In this section the procedure used in arithmetical KK forecasting will be described, while section 9.2 will be concerned with the main problem which is involved in KK forecasting of this type.
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References and further reading
- Evans, M. K., Haitovsky, Y. and Treyz, G. I. (1972) ‘An Analysis of the Forecasting Properties of US Econometric Models’, in B. G. Hickman (ed.), Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.Google Scholar
- Evans, M. K., Klein, L. R. and Saito, M. (1972) ‘Short-Run Prediction and Long-Run Simulation of the Wharton Model’, in B. G. Hickman (ed.), Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.Google Scholar
- Klein L. R. (1971) An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction, Markham, Chicago.Google Scholar
- Klein, L. R. and Young, R. M. (1980) An Introduction to Econometric Forecasting and Forecasting Models, D. C. Heath, Lexington, Mass.Google Scholar
- Kmenta, J. and Ramsey, J. B. (1981) Large-Scale Macro-Econometric Models, North-Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
- Mcnees, S. K. (1973) ‘The Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Forecasts’, New England Economic Review, September–October, pp. 3–27.Google Scholar
- Mcnees, S. K. (1974) ‘How Accurate Are Economic Forecasts?’, New England Economic Review, November–December, pp. 2–19.Google Scholar