Conclusions — the future

Abstract

The 1990s have witnessed a steady growth of violence whether in the form of civil wars, ethnic cleansing, border wars, religious fanaticism and related terrorism or in connection with highly organized international crime such as the drugs business. There is little evidence that such violence will abate and much to suggest that it will become worse and, if anything, more widespread in the early years of the twenty-first century. If, indeed, this turns out to be the case the market for mercenary interventions and the demands for military security services will increase commensurately. At the same time the prospects for ordered interventions by the United Nations or other organizations backed by the major powers seem at the very least problematic; there will, of course, be interventions but their effectiveness will be determined according to the extent of the big power interests involved in any particular conflict. Many conflicts are likely to be of marginal importance as far as the major powers and UN policy-makers are concerned; as in the case of Sierra Leone and the restoration to power of President Kabbah in 1998 Britain was sufficiently involved to encourage intervention by ECOMOG and Sandline though it was clearly unwilling to go further. Such interventions by proxy may well become the norm in the future and if this proves to be the case there will be a sharp increase in the numbers of military advisory security firms with little attempt to curtail their activities beyond what are likely to be the increasingly frustrated efforts of the United Nations.