Abstract
This paper presents a preliminary version of a new macroeconometric model developed at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. It is the result of a research effort with two major objectives. The first one is to build a model that is suitable for short, medium and long-term analyses. The rationale behind this goal is that many current policies and policy proposals are aimed at improving the structure of the economy. Thus, these policies aim to change the equilibrium of the economy. However, the new equilibrium obviously is not reached overnight, and these policies may in effect have very different short and medium-term effects. In particular, the short/ medium and long-term welfare effects of these policies may be of opposite sign, following the saying of ‘no pain, no gain,’ and it is this trade-off between ‘current pain’ and ‘future gain’ that often makes it unclear whether a policy should be adopted, or at least makes the proposal controversial.
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Broer, D.P., Draper, D.A.G., Houweling, A., Huizinga, F.H., de Jongh, P.A. (1998). High and Low-Skilled Labour in a Macroeconometric Model of the Netherlands. In: Brakman, S., van Ees, H., Kuipers, S.K. (eds) Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-26732-3_10
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