Epilogue: Can Growth Continue?

Abstract

It is the historian’s task to explain the past, not to predict the future, but this is the question which hovers in the background of discussion of economic development in Asia. A few of the considerations which may affect future growth have been suggested in Chapters 12 and 13, as well as a few areas where a future historian might look for explanations of growth or its absence. In general, it is clear that the structure of Asian states and the desires of key elite groups and individuals to retain power will pose problems for future growth by restricting the mobility of resources, for instance by protecting inefficient domestic producers, by allowing corrupt but influential individuals to affect policy, or through racist legislation discriminating against minority communities. They will also find it difficult to respond to the increasingly pressing need to satisfy the demands of their more affluent and better educated populations. Partly as a result of the slower population growth and increased education discussed in Chapter 10, and partly as a result of development itself, there will be upward pressure on wages. There will be further pressure especially from women, for the gendered structures considered in Chapter 11 will not contain the educated and mobile generation of women emerging in the next generation.

Having concluded roundly, let us conclude squarely, with a concluding conclusion.

Joseph Levenson, Confucian China and Its Modern Fate