Leading Indicators for OECD, Central and Eastern European Countries

Abstract

Business cycle analysis is an area in which central and eastern European countries (CEECs) have little experience at present, but which is likely to become increasingly important as they move to market economies. The OECD Secretariat has developed a “leading indicator system” for its member countries which is used by the Secretariat and its member countries for analysing business cycles and for predicting cyclical turning points. The first part of this paper explains how the OECD leading indicators are calculated and appraises the ability of these indicators to forecast changes in aggregate output.