Abstract
The Soviet Union is committed through the November 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, unilateral declarations, and bilateral accords with Eastern European states to a very substantial reduction in its conventional military arsenal in Europe and to the withdrawal of most if not all of its military forces stationed abroad. In itself this is a revolutionary programme. But Soviet conventional forces remaining within the frontiers of the USSR are also likely to be significantly restructured beyond CFE requirements in the early 1990s. In the first half of the decade the Soviet military reduction is likely to remain a combination of unilateral and multilateral negotiated efforts, although the balance between the two approaches may be tipped in favour of the former. Unilateral Soviet reductions in Europe are underwritten by the CFE Treaty, although this treaty postponed the issue of military personnel, and unilateral cuts intended for the future in the USSR may be locked into additional East-West agreements. A comprehensive regime of verification and monitoring should be established on Soviet territory, alongside other confidence and security building measures, which will further reinforce stability in Europe.
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Notes
See R. Allison, ‘Reasonable sufficiency and changes in Soviet security thinking’, in P. Gillette and W. Frank (eds), Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev (Greenwood Press, 1991); V. Zhurkin, S. Karaganov, A. Kortunov, ‘O razumnoi dostatochnosti’, SShA: Ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 12 (1987), pp. 19–20
A. Konovalov, ‘The military objectives of conventional arms control’, in R. Blackwell and F. Larrabee (eds), Conventional Arms Control and East-West Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989)
A. Vasilev, ‘Modelirovaniye ogranicheniya i sokrashcheniya obychnykh vooruzhenii’, SShA: ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 11 (1989) pp. 52–6
V. Tsygichko, ‘An evaluation of the strategic balance in Europe’, Voennyi vestnik (APN), 12 (June 1988) pp. 8–13
V. Tsygichko, ‘What balance are we discussing in Vienna?’, Voennyi vestnik (APN), 11 (June 1988), pp. 1–6
For an analysis of this military debate see P. Petersen and N. Trulock, ‘Equal security: greater stability at lower force levels’, in W. Taylor (ed.), Beyond Burdensharing, The Alliance papers: proceedings No. 1 (United States Mission to NATO, Brussels: April 1989) pp. 67ff.
A. Kokoshin, A. Konovalov, V. Larionov, V. Mazing, Problems of Ensuring Stability with Radical Cuts in Armed Forces and Conventional Armaments in Europe (Moscow: Novosti, 1989) p. 5.
See R. Allison, ‘Gorbachev’s new program for conventional arms control in Europe’, in S. Clark, (ed.), Gorbachev’s Agenda: Changes in Soviet Domestic and Foreign Policy (Boulder Col.: Westview Press, 1990) especially pp. 241–6.
See S. Karaganov, ‘The Common European Home: The military angle’, International Affairs, 8 (Moscow, 1988) p. 19.
N. Spasov, ‘SShA — zapadnaya Yevropa: novye vremena’, Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 10 (1989), p. 120
J. Sharp, ‘Conventional arms control in Europe’, in World Armaments and Disarmament. SIPRI Yearbook 1990 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990) p. 471.
See L. Feinstein, ‘Soviet cutbacks after the revolutions’, in Arms Control Today, Vol. 20, No. 6 (July/August 1990) pp. 10–11.
International Affairs, 9 (1989), as cited in H. Gelman, The Soviet Turn Toward Conventional Force Reduction (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, December 1989) p. 42.
A. Konovalov, ‘Armiya: vremia i bremia reshenii’, Nauka i zhizn, 3 (1990) pp. 42–3.
See A. Arbatov et al. ‘Negotiations on conventional armed forces in Europe’, in Disarmament and Security 1988–1989 Yearbook (Moscow: Novosti, 1989) p. 301.
J. Dean, ‘The CFE negotiations, present and future’, Survival, vol. xxxii, No. 4 (July/August 1990) pp. 321–2.
A. Kokoshin, Novoe vremia, 33 (1988), p. 19.
V. Serebryannikov, Soviet Military Review, 11 (1989) p. 37.
A. Arbatov, ‘How much defence is sufficient?’, International Affairs (Moscow), 4 (1989) p. 35.
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© 1992 International Council for Soviet and East European Studies and Roy Allison
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Allison, R. (1992). Soviet Policy on Conventional Force Reductions. In: Allison, R. (eds) Radical Reform in Soviet Defence Policy. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-21722-9_7
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