In the Shadow of the Past

Abstract

However difficult, however foolish the enterprise may be, we can never resist trying to predict the future. Even though we ought to know better, we are all incorrigible crystal ball gazers. We want history to tell us not only how it was, but how it is going to be. But how are we to distinguish between short-term episodes — the media event — and long-term historical change? All we can say is that the more deeply rooted in the past a trend is, the more likely it is to continue in the future. Hence the sharper our historical sense, the more accurate our predictions are likely to be.