The Ideologies of Nuclear Deterrence

Abstract

The development of the ideas of nuclear deterrence has reached an impasse, one that almost replicates, intellectually, the stalemate that has been thought to persist strategically. Two views, locked in dialectic since the beginning of the thermonuclear age, appear at present as if imprisoned in amber. Neither offers independent criteria for choosing between them. Taking these two views together, we are unable to predict the future conditions of deterrence. And finally, they do not enable us to decide whether effective deterrence is eroding or simply recurring in a cyclical pattern of anxiety and reassurance.

Nel mezzo del cammin di nostra vita mi ritrovai per una selva oscura chè la diritta via era smaritta.

(In the middle of the journey of our life I came to within a dark wood where the straight way was lost.)

Canto I, Inferno