New Technological Developments (Vertical Proliferation)

Abstract

Vertical proliferation designates the continuous process of introducing new scientific and technical discoveries into the field of armament. It is associated with all new systems that are developed in order to replace obsolete armaments which are meant to improve national arsenals and bring them to a level of efficiency and reliability that is at least equivalent to, or better than that of potential adversaries. It is a nearly impossible game to determine what this equilibrium really means. Few political leaders are ready to make a fair evaluation of the minimum needs for defence (what might be called minimum deterrence) and to stick to their conclusions irrespective of outside deployments. Such a posture involves the political risk, which nobody is willing to take, of being called naive about national security problems by not providing all possible means to the military. It is contrary to the primitive tradition of power symbolism which requires a group to show at least an equivalent power to the opponent, whether of not this power may be of any use. Also first- strike capability remains the basic military doctrine in case of perceived menace (not necessarily because of an aggressive posture), and armies cannot really be satisfied with purely defensive means. In such conditions, equilibrium can never be ideally achieved because it cannot be defined objectively. Vertical proliferation is at the root of what is more commonly called the arms race.