Abstract
HEGP was of course not a continuous process of smooth consistent economic expansion. It consisted rather of a series of booms and recessions. In this chapter we try to do three things:
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1.
We attempt to show that the business cycles of HEGP were a combination of cyclical changes in plant and equipment investment and inventory investment, regulated by the balance of payments situation.
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2.
We discuss how, towards 1970, world-wide inflation caused the international balance of payments ceiling to rise, so that eventually it no longer acted as a check on the expansion of the economy, and how this resulted in inflation and unemployment becoming the new ceiling and floor for the business cycle.
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3.
We explain how the inflation of the 1970s was of a completely different nature to that of the 1960s.
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Notes
Hiroshi Hori, ‘Tōshi ga Tōshi o yobu Mekanizumu’, in Keizai Kikakuchō, Chōsakyoku (Economic Planning Agency, Research Bureau) Keizai Geppō, Sept 1961.
Keizai Kikakuchō, Keizai Kenkyūjo (Economic Planning Agency, Research Institute) Shihon Sutokku to Keizai Seichō, 1962.
Miyohei Shinohara, Nihon Keizai wa Tenkeiki ni aru ka, Chūōkōron, Keieitokushū, Jan 1962.
On whether the ‘Tenkeiki’ had ended, see Toshio Shishido, ‘Tenkeiki wa owatta’, Ekonomisuto, 17 Jan 1967.
For information on this hypothesis, see Hiroshi Kawaguchi, ‘Nihon no Infureishon — 1960 Nendai ikō no Tenkai o Chūshin ni’, in Gendai Sekai no Infureishon, compiled by Gendai Infureishon Kenkyūkai, Yūhikaku, 1981.
Hiroshi Kawaguchi, ‘Shōhisha Bukka Tōki to Yūshi Shūchū Kikō’, Keizai Hyōron, Dec 1963.
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© 1984 Yutaka Kosai and Yoshitaro Ogino
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Kosai, Y., Ogino, Y. (1984). Business Cycles, International Balance of Payments and Inflation. In: The Contemporary Japanese Economy. Studies in the Modern Japanese Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-17499-7_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-17499-7_2
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-0-333-36365-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-17499-7
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