The Battle

Abstract

On 12 March France voted, concluding an election campaign which had, in effect, lasted ever since May 1974 had put the possibility of a Left victory on the agenda. Despite the Left’s open disarray since September 1977, the opinion polls continued to the last to suggest that the balance of forces seen in the 1977 municipal elections still held. On that occasion the Left had beaten the Majority in the 221 large towns by 50.8 per cent: 41.9 per cent or, when Ecologist and other third-party votes were redistributed, by 53.6 per cent: 46.4 per cent.¹ The last SOFRES poll in March 1978 showed the Left leading by 51 per cent: 45 per cent, while IFOP showed an even more handsome 53.5 per cent: 43 per cent lead.² It was known, of course, that the Left would need a handy lead to overcome the effects of unfavourable constituency demarcation³ and the certainty of at least some PS/MRG defections on the second ballot in seats where withdrawals by their own parties had left them with a choice between a Communist or the Right. But both polls suggested that the Left had enough support for a majority, if not a landslide.