Abstract
Though agricultural production has increased substantially in developing countries, much of the increase has been absorbed by population growth. Further, production per head has risen very slowly and has lagged behind consumption, while imports have increased. A number of recent studies have suggested that these trends will continue and that net imports of foodgrains by developing countries will approximately double between 1973–4 and 1985. This projected increase in imports would pose serious balance of payments problems for many developing countries, including some of the poorest.2
We wish to express our gratitude for the research support received from the Economic Analysis and Projections Department of the IBRD, which made this study possible.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Behrman, Jere R., Supply Response in Traditional Agriculture: A Case Study of Four Major Annual Crops in Thailand in 1937–63 (Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1968).
Blakeslee, Leroy L., Earl O. Heady and Charles F. Framingham, World Food Production, Demand, and Trade (Iowa State University Press, 1973).
Chenery, Hollis B. and Hazel Elkington, ‘A Uniform Analysis of Development Patterns’, Discussion Draft, July 1970.
Chenery, Hollis B. and Moises Syrquin, Patterns of Development, 1950–1970 (Oxford University Press, 1975).
Clarke, Colin, The Conditions of Economic Progress (Second edition 1951, Third edition 1957) (Macmillan, 1940).
Choe, Boem, Marc Osterrieth and Jean Waelbroeck, ‘Agricultural Prospects of Developing Countries’, Discussion Draft (forthcoming in Proceedings of the Fourth Conference on Global Modeling, International Institute for Applied Systems, Vienna), 1976.
Food and Agriculture Organisation, Assessment of the World Food Situation, Present and Future (Rome, 1974).
Hadler, Sandra, ‘Developing Countries Foodgrains Projections for 1985’, IBRD Working Paper, 1976.
Harris, J. R. and M. P. Todaro, ‘Migration, Unemployment, and Development: A Two Sector Analysis’, American Economic Review, 60 (1970), 126–42.
Heady, Earl Q. and John L. Dillon, Agricultural Production Functions (Iowa State University Press, 1961).
Hendrix, William E., ‘Foodgrain Supply and Demand Situation and Prospects for Eleven Asian Nations’, World Bank Agricultural and Rural Development Department Working Paper, 1975.
Herdt, Robert W. and John Mellon, ‘The Contrasting Response of Rice to Nitrogen: India and the United States’, Journal of Farm Economics, XLV (1964), 150–60.
Hoogh, Jan De, Michiel De Keyzer, Hans Linneman and H. D. J. Van Heemst, ‘Food for a Growing World Population’, in Gerhart Bruckman (ed.), Moira: Food and Agriculture Model, Proceedings of the Third IIASA Conference on Global Modeling, September 22–25, 1975, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, 1977.
IFPRI, ‘Meeting Food Needs in the Developing World’, Research Report No. 1, Washington, DC, 1976.
Kuznets, Simon, Economic Growth of Nations: Total Output and Production Structure (Cambridge, Bellknap Press of Harvard University, 1971).
Lele, Uma and John W. Mellor, ‘Estimates of Changes and Causes of Changes in Foodgrains Production, India 1949–50 to 1960–61’, Cornell International Development Bulletin 2 (Cornell University, Ithaca, 1964).
Linneman, Hans, ‘Food for a Doubling World Population Project’, Discussion Draft, 1975.
Lluch, Constantino, ‘The Extended Linear Expenditures System’, European Economic Review (April 1973), 21–32.
Lluch, Constantino, Alan Powell and Ross Williams, ‘Household Demand and Savings in Economic Development: Applications of Linear Demand Systems’, Discussion Draft, 1975.
Mellor, John W., The Economics of Agricultural Development (Cornell University Press, 1966).
Mellor, John W., Uma Lele, Debra Biamante and Arthur Goldsmith, ‘Estimates of Foodgrains Production and Marketing from Input Estimates, India, 1949–50 to 1973–74, and Projections to 1983–84’, Occasional Paper No. 83, Cornell University — USAID Employment and Income Distribution Project, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, 1975.
Mellor, John W., ‘The Economics of Growth’, A Strategy for India and the Developing World, Twentieth Century Fund Study (Cornell University Press, 1976).
Mundlak, Yair, ‘Migration In and Out of Agriculture — Empirical Analysis Based on Country Data’, Discussion Draft, International Fund Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 1976.
Strout, Alan, ‘World Agricultural Potential, Evidence from the Recent Past’, Discussion Draft, 1975.
Schultz, Theodoro W., Transforming Traditional Agriculture (New Haven Yale University Press, 1964).
Systems Analysis Research Unit, ‘Systems Analysis Research Unit Model (SARUM)’, Discussion Draft 1976.
Timmer, Peter, ‘The Demand for Fertilizers in Developing Countries’, Stanford Rice Project Working Paper No. 5, 1974.
Timmer, Peter, ‘The Political Economy of Rice in Asia, Lessons and Implications’, Discussion Draft, 1975.
Timmer, Peter, ‘Fertilizers and Food Policy in Developing Countries’, Discussion Draft, 1976.
Weisskoff, Richard, ‘Demand Elasticities for a Developing Economy, An International Comparison of Consumption Patterns’, in Hollis B. Chenery (ed.), Studies in Developing Planning (Harvard University Press, 1971).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Copyright information
© 1980 International Economic Association
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Osterrieth, M., Verreydt, E., Waelbroeck, J. (1980). The Impact of Agricultural Price Policies on Demand and Supply, Incomes, and Imports; an Experimental Model for South Asia. In: Bliss, C., Boserup, M. (eds) Economic Growth and Resources. International Economic Association Publications Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-16328-1_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-16328-1_12
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-16330-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-16328-1
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)