Abstract
Looking into the future is certainly not a new experience for mankind, but as a discipline it is relatively new. The roots of systematic forecasting have been traced to the mid-nineteenth century when trend curves were used as an expression of population growth.1
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Chapter 7
For a detailed study of consumer demand predictions in the UK see A. Deaton, Models and Projections of Demand in Post-War Britain (London: Chapman & Hall, 1975).
This principle is that the level of investment is not a function of the level of consumption but of the rate of change of the level of consumption. A simple explanation of the principle is given in A. Stonier and D. Hague, A Textbook of Economic Theory (London: Longmans, 1964).
A. J. Maitland, World Energy Outlook and the Implications for the Engineering Industry. Paper presented to The Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Scottish Branch, Edinburgh (Nov 1977).
National Science Foundation, Proceedings of a Conference on Technological Transfer and Innovation (Washington: NSF, 1966).
B. Archer, ‘Design as an Element in a New Approach to Britain’s Industrial Future’, Quarterly Review of Marketing (Winter 1976).
See for instance Uranium Resources (Paris: OECD, Press Release, Mar 1976); ‘Is There a World Energy Crisis?’, C. Robinson and E. M. Crook, National Westminster Bank Review (May 1973); and note 8 above.
P. M. S. Jones (ed.), Market Research in an R & D Environment (London: Industrial Marketing Research Association Study Group, Oct 1970).
J. C. Chambers, S. K. Mullick and D. D. Smith, ‘How to Choose the Right Forecasting Technique’, Harvard Business Review (July/Aug 1971).
Office of Health Economics, Medicine in the 1990’s (London: Office of Health Economics, 1969).
E. F. Parker, ‘British Chemical Industry in the 1980’s — A Delphi Method Profile’, Chemistry and Industry (Jan 1970).
C. T. Gilligan and G. Darling, ‘Forecasting the North Sea Survey Ship Market’, Industrial Marketing Management (Dec 1975).
For instance The Delphi Method — Techniques and Applications, ed. H. A. Linstone and M. Turoff (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975).
H. Kahn and A. J. Weiner, The Year 2000 — A Framework Speculating about the Next 33 Years (London: Macmillan, 1967).
A useful series of essays demonstrating the range of interest in the subject contained in Planning Alternative World Futures, ed. L. R. Beres and H. L. Targ (New York: Praeger, and London: Martin Robertson, 1975).
J. S. Rowlinson, Identifying the Opportunities (London: IMRA Conference on North Sea Oil, 1975).
P. M. S. Jones and H. Hunt, Programme Evaluation as Practised by the PAU and Three Case Studies, PAU-M12 (London: H.M.S.O., 1969).
F. Felix, ‘World Energy Needs in Relation to Economic Growth and Quality of Life’, Energy International (July 1972).
V. Smil and T. Kuz, ‘A New Look at Energy and GDP Correlation’, Energy International (Jan 1976).
The degree of association is shown by the correlation coefficient which is expressed as a number between +1.0 and −1.0. The closer the coefficient is to the ends of this range the better the correlation between the two variables: the closer it is to zero the poorer the correlation. A clear and comprehensive treatment of correlation and regression is given in M. J. Moroney, Facts from Figures (Harmondsworth: Penguin Books 1965).
J. S. Duesenberry, G. Fromm, L. Klein and E. Kuh (eds), The Brookings Quarterly Economic Model of the United States Economy (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1975).
See Annex II of Long Term Prospects of the Electric Power Industry in Europe, 1970–85 (New York: Economic Commission for Europe Secretariat, United Nations, 1974).
A. J. Maitland, Industrial Forecasting, Paper presented to the British Industrial Marketing Association, April 1975.
S. Encel, P. K. Marstrand and W. Page (eds), The Art of Anticipation: Values and Methods in Forecasting (London: Martin Robertson 1975).
E. Jantsch, Technological Forecasting in Perspective (Paris: OECD, 1967).
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© 1980 Ronald McTavish and Angus Maitland
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McTavish, R., Maitland, A. (1980). Forecasting. In: Industrial Marketing. Macmillan Studies in Marketing Management. Palgrave, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-16317-5_7
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