Interpretation of the Evidence

Abstract

This chapter considers how the theories advanced in Chapter 4 can be used to interpret the evidence reported in the previous chapter. To a certain extent the intention is to test each of the theories against the EEC statistics. But, because of data limitations, it is not possible conclusively to accept or reject any of the theories. The main problem is that the results of two cross-section surveys at different points in time do not make it possible to build up a full picture of the dynamics of the labour market — the movement of people between jobs, into and out of the workforce, and so on. Much of the evidence therefore bears only indirectly on the crucial question of how the youth labour market functions. Thus all that can be done is to select those hypotheses which appear most useful in explaining the predominant features of the current youth-unemployment situation. These hypotheses are used in the next chapter to appraise alternative policies for youth employment.