The analysis and forecasting of the areal distribution of journeys usually forms the second stage in the sequential process set out in Chapter 3. Methods of forecasting trip distribution have varied considerably, both in complexity and in the nature of the assumptions which are made about the factors affecting travel patterns. The first part of the chapter briefly examines the growth-factor approach in which the forecast trip distribution is independent of transport-network factors. The remaining sections discuss models whose forecasts are sensitive both to landuse and transport-network factors.
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Notes and References
- 1.A number of such methods are described in W. Y. Oi and P. W. Schuldiner, An Analysis of Urban Travel Demands, Transportation Centre, Northwestern University (Evanston, Illinois: Northwestern University Press, 1962).Google Scholar
- 3.A. G. Wilson, ‘Advances and Problems in Distribution Modelling’, Transportation Research, vol. 4, no. 1 (1970).Google Scholar
- A. G. Wilson, ‘The Use of Entropy Maximising Methods in the Theory of Trip Distribution, Mode Split and Route Split’, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, vol. 3, no. 1 (1969).Google Scholar
- 6.A. G. Wilson, A. F. Hawkins, G. J. Hill and D. J. Wagon, ‘Calibration and Testing of the SELNEC Transport Model’, Regional Studies, vol. 3, no. 4 (1969).Google Scholar
- 7.See, for example, A. W. Evans, ‘A General Theory of the Allocation of Time’, unpublished paper, University of Glasgow (1969)Google Scholar
- G. S. Becker, ‘A Theory of the Allocation of Time’, Economic Journal, vol. 75, no. 3 (1965).Google Scholar
- 8.M. E. Beesley, ‘Motorways in London and Transport Planning’, Environment and Planning, vol. 2, no. 1 (1970).Google Scholar