US Reputation and Soviet Expansion

Abstract

In assessing the impact of reputation on deterrence we face a problem that is both theoretical and operational. The interconnectedness theory predicts that defeats or other evidence of weakness or inattention will erode a country’s reputation and encourage challenges to its commitments, but supporters of this notion have not indicated how soon these effects take hold, how long they last, or, more generally, how susceptible to change are the images leaders have of their adversaries. Because one event or series of events may shape images of credibility so strongly that several future episodes are affected, there are potential pitfalls in sole reliance on a case by case approach. Hence, it seems wiser to begin with an examination of a much larger ‘unit of analysis’, an entire turn of the cycle in the US-Soviet rivalry, taken as a whole.