Real Exchange Rates and Trade Imbalances in the EMS

  • Stefano Vona

Abstract

Perhaps in reaction to the scepticism with which the establishment of the EMS was greeted by many economists and by most European central banks, celebrations of the ten years of the EMS tend to magnify the System’s virtues and successes. In this chapter, I have tried to follow a more balanced approach in analysing the relatively neglected effects of the EMS on real economic variables.2

Keywords

Europe Income Explosive Posit Volatility 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Artis, M.J. and Taylor, M.P. (1988) ‘Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Capital Controls and the European Monetary System: Assessing the Track Record’, in F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (eds) The European Monetary System (Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  2. Banca d’Italia (1989) Economic Bulletin, no. 8, February.Google Scholar
  3. Basevi, G., Calzolari, M. and Colombo, C. (1983) ‘Monetary Authorities’ Reaction Functions and the European Monetary System’, in D.R. Hodgman (ed.) The Political Economy of Monetary Policy: National and International Aspects, Proceedings of a Conference held in Perugia, Italy, July.Google Scholar
  4. Bini Smaghi, L. (1988) ‘Exchange Rate Variability, Trade and Capital Mobility’, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Chicago, February, unpublished.Google Scholar
  5. Bini Smaghi, L. and Vona, S. (1989) ‘The Effects of Economic Convergence and Competitiveness on Trade among the EMS Countries’, in D.R. Hodgman and G.E. Wood (eds) Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Interdependence (London: Macmillan).Google Scholar
  6. Bofinger, P. and Gerberding, C. (1988) ‘EMS: A Model for a World Monetary Order?’, Intereconomics, September/October.Google Scholar
  7. Boltho, A. (1986)‘L’economia italiana a confronto 1973–1985’, in Ente Einaudi (ed.) Oltre la crisi (Bologna: Il Mulino).Google Scholar
  8. Collins, S.M. (1988) ‘Inflation and the European Monetary System’, in F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (eds) The European Monetary System (Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  9. Committee for the Study of Economic and Monetary Union (1989) Report on the Economic and Monetary Union in the European Community, April.Google Scholar
  10. De Cecco, M. (1988) ‘Il Sistema Monetario Europeo e gli interessi nazionali’, in P. Guerrieri and P.C. Padoan (eds) L’economia politica dell’integrazione europea (Bologna: Il Mulino).Google Scholar
  11. De Grauwe, P. (1987) ‘International Trade and Economic Growth in the European Monetary System’, European Economic Review, vol. 31, no. 1/2, February/March.Google Scholar
  12. Dini, L. (1988) The Liberalisation of Capital and the Strengthening of the EMS, Hearing before the European Parliament, Brussels. Bank of Italy, Documenti, no. 221, July.Google Scholar
  13. EC Commission (1989) Lo SME- dieci anni di progressi nella cooperazione monetaria europea. Google Scholar
  14. Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M.(1985) Capital Controls and the European Monetary System, Occasional Paper, Euromobiliare, June, Milan.Google Scholar
  15. Gomel, G., Saccomanni, F. and Vona, S. (1989) ‘Tripolar Economic Policy Coordination: Problems of a Multi-Country Pole’, International Spectator, no. 3/4, July–December.Google Scholar
  16. Gressani, D., Guiso, L. and Visco, I. (1987) ‘Il rientro dell’inflazione: un’analisi con il modello econometrico della Banca d’Italia’, Bank of Italy, Temi di Discussione, no. 90, July.Google Scholar
  17. Guitiân, M. (1988) ‘The European Monetary System: A Balance Between Rules and Discretion’, in Policy Coordination in the European Monetary System, IMF, Occasional Paper no. 61, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  18. Kaufman, H. (1985) ‘The Deutschemark between the Dollar and the European Monetary System’, Kredit und Kapital, no. 1.Google Scholar
  19. Masera, R.S. (1987) L’unificazione monetaria e lo SME (Bologna: Il Mulino).Google Scholar
  20. Masera, R.S. (1990) ‘The European Monetary System Ten Years On: Problems and Perspectives’, ch. 10, present volume.Google Scholar
  21. Melitz, J. (1988) ‘Monetary Discipline and Cooperation in the European Monetary System: A Synthesis’, in F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (eds) The European Monetary System (Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  22. Micossi, S. (1985) ‘The Intervention and Financing Mechanisms of the EMS and the Role of the ECU’, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, no. 155.Google Scholar
  23. Micossi, S. and Padoa-Schioppa, T. (1984) Can Europeans Control Their Interest Rates?, CEPS Papers, no. 17.Google Scholar
  24. Padoan, P.C. (1988) ‘Il Sistema Monetario Europeo e le politiche nazionali’, in P.C. Padoan (ed.) Politiche monetarie e politiche di bilancio nella Comunità Europea (Bologna: Il Mulino).Google Scholar
  25. Padoa-Schioppa, T. (1988a) ‘The European Monetary System: A Long-Term View’, in F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (eds) The European Monetary System (Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  26. Padoa-Schioppa, T. (1988b) ‘The International Monetary System: The Next Twenty-Five Years’, Per Jacobson Lecture, Basle, June.Google Scholar
  27. Rebecchini, S. and Vona, S. (1990) ‘The Decline of the EEC in International Trade: A Search for Some Structural Causes’, in A. Courakis, F. Moraroque and G. Iannopulos (eds) Trade Patterns and Policies in Southern Europe (forthcoming).Google Scholar
  28. Rogoff, K. (1985) ‘Can Exchange Rate Predictability be Achieved without Monetary Convergence? Evidence from the EMS’, European Economic Review, vol. 28, no. 1.Google Scholar
  29. Spaventa, L. (1988) ‘Old Rules and a New Reality?’, in F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (eds) The European Monetary System (Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  30. Ungerer, H. et al. (1986) The European Monetary System: Recent Developments, IMF, Occasional Paper no. 48, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  31. Vona, S. and Bini Smaghi, L. (1988) ‘Economic Growth and Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Their Trade Effects in a Changing External Environment’, in F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (eds) The European Monetary System (Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Piero Ferri 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stefano Vona

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations