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Issues in Contemporary Economics pp 319–344Cite as

Palgrave Macmillan

Survey Data on Expectations: What Have We Learnt?

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Part of the book series: International Economic Association Series ((IEA))

Abstract

Expectations play a major role in all economic activity. They are so ubiquitous in all economic modelling that it is not necessary to dwell on this issue at length. Early models of expectation were mostly extrapolative and the most popular model in the 1950s was the adaptive expectations model. Around 1960, Muth suggested that theories of expectation formation should be consistent with the economic model being considered and he said that, for lack of a better term, he would use the word ‘rational’ (Muth, 1961). In the 1970s, mainly with the impetus of Robert E. Lucas, Jr, the rational expectations model took off and now almost every paper published with the word ‘expectations’ in its title comes with a prefix ‘rational’.

I would like to acknowledge helpful comments from William Bomberger, R. P. H. Fishe, Kajal Lahiri, and Peter Liu on an earlier draft, and from Angus Deaton, Jacques Van der Gaag, Marc Nerlove and Paul Taubman at the meetings in Athens.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Florida, USA

    G. S. Maddala

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  1. G. S. Maddala
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Marc Nerlove

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© 1991 International Economic Association

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Maddala, G.S. (1991). Survey Data on Expectations: What Have We Learnt?. In: Nerlove, M. (eds) Issues in Contemporary Economics. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-11576-1_12

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