A War-Economy Theory of the Long Wave

Abstract

Long waves of roughly fifty years in economic and social life have intrigued many scholars because they offer an alternative perspective from which to view history and the present situation - an alternative to either static or linear projections of the future. Past empirical studies of long waves have agreed on the dating of long waves historically but not on the scope of those waves in terms of variables encompassed, relevant time-periods, or causal mechanisms (see review in Goldstein, 1988: ch. 3). I have sought to advance the empirical evidence relevant to long waves by sorting and testing conflicting hypotheses in the long-wave debate against about fifty historical time-series (Goldstein, 1988). Based on the most salient lagged correlations among variables found in my empirical analysis, I adduced a set of causal dynamics among variables that could account for the sequence of phenomena making up the long wave - as best that sequence could be inferred from spotty empirical data. The adduced theory is a tentative one, with many remaining loose ends and anomalies. But it is better-grounded empirically than past longwave theories.