Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets

Abstract

The difficulties encountered — in the near term in particular — in analysing the likely supply/demand balance for commodities and currencies cannot be over-emphasised and it is undoubtedly for this reason, as much as any, that techical analysis has long been popular in the commodity markets and has now become an essential tool in the FOREX markets too. A recent Bank of England survey found that by far the vast majority of chief dealers in banks use at least some chartist input. They also found, perhaps to their surprise, that technical analysis was being used as a complementary tool to fundamental analysis; when considered logically this should without doubt be the case since each form of analysis effectively represents one side of the coin. Fundamental analysis is undertaken in an attempt to establish ‘value’, whilst technical analysis rests on the examination of price alone; anyone who has been in the markets for any length of time will recognise that the two are frequently not the same.