American Perceptions of Iranian Threats to Gulf Security

Abstract

Even with reliable data about Gulf countries any analytical task would be daunting. Iran’s revolution is still in process. An internal power struggle is barely contained with basic social and economic issues remaining unresolved. Over seven years of war have worn not only at the social and economic fabric of the combatant countries, but added stress throughout the region. Soviet occupation of Afghanistan has complicated the equation. So has Lebanon. So has the collapse of the Gulf oil boom. Changes are so profuse that analysts of the Gulf are like physicians asked to prescribe for patients they hardly know. And instead of lab reports these physicians must depend heavily on hearsay and official releases.