The Soviets in Afghanistan: Risks, Costs, and Opportunities

Abstract

Soviet decisions on Afghanistan, both prior to and for nearly a decade following the 1979 invasion and occupation, lend support to the view that Moscow’s foreign policies, though essentially reactive and cautious, are also opportunistic and embued with a capacity for the relentless pursuit of basic objectives. While Soviet actions in Afghanistan have been marked by a high degree of consistency and continuity, they also furnish a good demonstration of the Soviet leadership’s willingness to assume greater risks when the perceived opportunities to be exploited or threats to be contained increase substantially. Acceptance of costly commitments seems most apparent when Soviet dominion over a fraternal socialist state is challenged, either because the regime is threatened by internal foes or undermined by its own incompetence or ineffectiveness.