Abstract
The Korean peninsula is a security flashpoint in the Asia-Pacific region. As a heavily armed peninsula, divided Korea continues to act not only as the focal point of armed confrontation between the two hostile regimes and states—the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in the North and the Republic of Korea (ROK) in the South—but also as a strategic fulcrum among the four major world powers maintaining active interests in and surrounding the Korean peninsula, i.e., the United States, the Soviet Union, China, and Japan. The intersection of these two contending forces and prevailing trends, the inter-Korean rivalry, and the major power relations between them create a situation of real and potential regional conflict, making the Korean peninsula one of the most sensitive security barometers in today’s world politics.
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Notes
Young Whan Kihl, Politics and Policies in Divided Korea: Regimes in Contest (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1984).
Frederick Nelson, Korea and the Old Orders in Eastern Asia (Baton Rouge, La.: Louisiana State University Press, 1946).
Zbigniew Brezezinski, Game Plan: A Geostrategic Framework for the Conduct of the U.S.-Soviet Contest (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 1986).
Joseph A. Yaeger, “The Security Environment of the Korean Peninsula in the 1980s,” Asian Perspective, Vol. 8, No. 1 (Spring-Summer 1984), p. 86.
Richard L. Sneider, “Prospects for Korean Security,” in Richard H. Solomon, ed., Asian Security in the 1980s: Problems and Policies for a Time of Transition (Santa Monica, Ca.: Rand, 1979), p. 112.
T. B. Millar, “Introduction: Asia in the Global Balance,” in Donald Hugh McMillen, ed., Asian Perspectives on International Security (London: Macmillan, 1984), pp. 5–6. Italics added.
Norman D. Levin, The Strategic Environment in East Asia and U.S.Korean Security Relations in the 1980s (Santa Monica, Ca.: Rand, March 1983). See also Young-Koo Cha, “Strategic Environment of Northeast Asia: A Korean Perspective,” Korea & World Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 2 (Summer 1986), pp. 278–301.
Levin, The Strategic Environment in East Asia, p. v. On a recent study of the Soviet nuclear buildup in Asia, see Richard H. Solomon and Masataka Kosaka, eds., The Soviet Far East Military Buildup: Nuclear Dilemmas and Asian Security (Dover, Mass.: Auburn House Publishing Co., 1986).
See, for instance, Young Whan Kihl, “North Korea in 1984: The Hermit Kingdom Turns Outward!”, Asian Survey, Vol. 25, No. 1 (January 1985), pp. 65–79; Young Whan Kihl, “North Korea’s New Pragmatism,” Current History, Vol. 85, No. 510 (April 1986), pp. 164–167, 198.
Yomiuri Shimbun (Tokyo), 17 September 1985; The Asian Wall Street Journal, 21 October 1984; The Washington Times, 26 November 1985.
Young Whan Kihl, “Strategies for Improving Inter-Korean Political Relations,” Korea Observer, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Winter 1986), pp. 382–400.
The Military Balance, 1986–87 (London: IIS, 1986), pp. 159–161. See also Larry A. Niksch, “The Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula,” Korea & World Affairs, Vol. 10, No. 2 (Summer 1986), pp. 253–277.
The Military Balance, op. cit. See also U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers: 1971–1980 (Washington, D.C., 1983).
On the relative evenness of the North-South Korean forces, see The Military Balance, op. cit. According to this source, “the opposing forces in the Korean Peninsula are roughly equivalent” (p. 118). See also Young Whan Kihl, “The Two Koreas: Security, Diplomacy and Peace,” in Young Whan Kihl and Lawrence Grinter, eds., Asian-Pacific Security: Emerging Challenges and Responses (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1986).
A Comparative Study of the South and North Korean Economies (Seoul: National Unification Board, 1985).
An estimate of the GNP figures for both Koreas was derived from the various issues of the World Bank Atlas and Asia Yearbook. Also consulted were: Kihwan Kim, The Korean Economy: Past Performance, Current Reforms, and Future Prospects (Seoul: Korea Development Institute, 1985), and A Comparative Study of the South and North Korean Economies, op. cit.
This is the conclusion arrived at in a U.S. CIA study, Korea: The Economic Race Between the North and the South: A Research Paper (Washington, D.C.: National Foreign Assessment Center and the Library of Congress, 1978), p. 2.
Ibid. p. 6
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Troop Withdrawal from the Republic of Korea, A Report to the Committee by Senators Hubert H. Humphrey and John Glenn, 9 January 1978, 95th Congress, 2d Session (cited hereafter as Humphrey-Glenn Report; Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1978); Ralph N. Clough, Deterrence and Defense in Korea: The Role of U.S. Forces (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1976).
Young-Ho Lee, “Military Balance and Peace in the Korean Peninsula,” Asian Survey, Vol. 21, No. 8 (August 1981), pp. 852–864. See also Niksch, “The Military Balance,” op. cit.
Young Choi, “The North Korean Military Buildup and Its Impacts on North Korean Military Strategy in the 1980s,” Asian Survey, Vol. 25, No. 3 (March 1985), pp. 343–348.
Ibid., p. 355.
Richard L. Sneider, The Political and Social Capabilities of North and South Korea for the Long-Term Military Competition (Santa Monica, Ca.: Rand, January 1985), pp. 35–36. The author of this report was former U.S. Ambassador to ROK during the Ford administration.
Ibid.
Ibid., p. vi.
Ibid., p. 44.
Ibid., pp. vi–vii.
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© 1987 Lawrence E. Grinter and Young Whan Kihl
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Kihl, Y.W. (1987). The Korean Peninsula Conflict: Equilibrium or Deescalation?. In: Grinter, L.E., Kihl, Y.W. (eds) East Asian Conflict Zones. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-10053-8_5
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