World Coal Demand: Bridging the Energy Future?

Abstract

Each year the world now produces and consumes about 3 bn tonnes of hard coal (bituminous coal and anthracite) and another bn tonnes of lignite and sub-bituminous coal. That is the equivalent of over 2 bn tonnes of oil a year, or about 45 mn b/d. Nearly one-third of the world’s energy consumption is solid fuel. As in other fuel markets, there is substantial over-capacity in coal production and associated activities, and following a period when there were expectations of rapid growth in world coal consumpton, doubts are appearing about coal’s future as world oil and gas prices fall. Coal prices too have been weakening from a level which was already not very profitable for some producers and at which others were being subsidized by governments. This paper begins by examining some recent world coal demand predictions and then draws some conclusions about coal’s prospects in the next ten to fifteen years.