Energy Demand Prospects in the Iea Countries

Abstract

As the date of this conference approached, I more and more wondered why I had agreed to give a paper about energy demand prospects at the present time. In recent years, those making projections about the future energy situation have an unenviable record of being proved not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is particularly rash to speculate about future demand prospects today when it is difficult to see what is currently happening in the oil market and when the outlook for energy and oil prices is so uncertain. But, despite, or rather because of, these uncertainties, it is more than ever necessary that those responsible for policies and decisions in the energy sector should try and look at the future so as to:

• get an impression of where we are going;

• know what questions to ask;

• judge where the risks lie and how to guard against them.

This paper represents the personal views of the author and not necessarily those of the International Energy Agency or its Member governments.