The Macroeconomic Effects of Greece’s Accession to the European Economic Community: An Evaluation with the Use of the GRACINT Econometric Model: An Attempt at Quantification of the Integration Effects Over the Transition Period

Abstract

This chapter attempts an ex-ante estimation of the economic effects from Greece’s accession to the European Economic Community (EEC). Using available pre-accession statistical data and the information relative to the modalities of the Treaty of Accession signed in May 1979 we forecast how income, expenditure and employment would develop under the impact of the integration process and compare the results with a plausible reference run of the Greek economy under the no-accession hypothesis. For this forecasting exercise we used a demand-type econometric model called GRACINT. The principal findings of this econometric exercise are summarised in Table 2.1 towards the end of the chapter.

This chapter is based on the author’s doctoral dissertation submitted to the Free University of Brussels. The author wishes to thank Professors H. Glejser, J. Vuchelen and P. Balestra (Geneva) for their valuable assistance. Any shortcomings remain the responsibility of the author.