Simulation Techniques in Fertility Analysis

Abstract

The use of simulation techniques in the social sciences is increasing, as larger and faster computers become more and more accessible. Simulation provides information about the characteristics and outcomes of a system by repeated numerical analysis. One proposed definition is given by Naylor: ‘Simulation is a numerical technique for conducting experiments with certain types of mathematical models which describe the behaviour of a complex system on a digital computer over extended periods of time’ (Naylor, 1971, p. 2). This gives a good idea of the practical consequences of a simulation approach, for the computer is an almost indispensible tool in this type of analysis. It is, however, debatable whether the use of a computer constitutes part of the basic definition of simulation — in principle, one can simulate on the back of an envelope. The fundamental aspect of simulation is rather the digital representation of a system, of which the behaviour is represented and analysed numerically.