Arab and Israeli Perspectives on International Security

Abstract

Any attempt to analyse Arab and Israeli perceptions of international security begs questions about precisely who those perceivers are, how stable over time those perceptions have been, and upon what evidence the analysis is based. These questions, which are of relevance to the inquiry as a whole, are particularly salient in this essay because of the enormous political diversity of the subjects under study; because of significant shifts over time in basic perceptions; and because of an unusually large discrepancy between public statements and private beliefs among both Arabs and Israelis. Precision requires, then, that the analyst disaggregate the actors into subgroups; that he plot perceptions over time; and that he attempt some form of ‘propaganda analysis’ whereby the public record can be linked to private beliefs. Unfortunately such an approach is beyond the scope of this paper. Space and other limitations require that observations be made at more general levels. Only very salient internal variations in actors’ perceptions over time can be noted, while the data base and linkages between attitudes, expressions of them, and behaviour itself will have to remain largely unspecified. Inferences about perceptions will perforce be based on the author’s interpretations, which in turn rest on evidence of various sorts, secondary and primary, and on a mainly implicit, simple model linking attitudes and behaviour.