Abstract
George Bernard Shaw declared, ‘Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach’. Today’s cynic says, ‘Those who are able to predict, make their econometric forecasts. Those who can’t, become futurologists’. So, at the beginning, let us make a deposition that no scientist can pinpoint the distant future with any accuracy. What separates the sage from the dilettante is the plausibility of the odds quoted, the degree of interest and relevance in the tale told. History has shown us that the luck of clowns has often beaten that of sages. But for every number on the wheel there is some clown to give it backing; and so, once again, we must judge the worth of a prophet by the ex ante plausibility of his model.
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© 1983 International Economic Association
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Samuelson, P.A., Giersch, H., Khachaturov, T.S. (1983). The World Economy at Century’s End. In: Tsuru, S. (eds) Human Resources, Employment and Development. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-06270-6_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-06270-6_3
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
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