The Determinants of change: Deterrence and the Political Environment

Abstract

Deterrence has not prevented the world from changing.¹ We have gone a long way since the young and inexperienced nuclear powers tried to come to grips with the bomb, to integrate it into their strategy and to make it a persuasive tool not just for this strategy but also for their diplomacy. The early days of deterrence were characterized by four main features: an erstwhile predominance of military over civilian thinking about the bomb that postponed its ‘politicization’ and integration into a coherent policy; a feeling of total confrontation that was shared by the two opposing camps and left little, if any, room for dialogue and accommodation; a clear sense of the superiority of the United States that led to the belief that she had an educational mission vis-à-vis the Soviet Union; and a still unshattered trust in the benefits of technology, which more often than not saved the day by offering technological answers to political problems.