The Concepts and Techniques of Social Forecasting

Abstract

Much of the literature of forecasting concentrates on descriptions of the techniques the forecaster may use. It is important, however, to understand the role of these techniques in the overall forecasting process. There is no mystique in the application of these methods. Their purpose is to ensure that all the information relevant to the problem being examined is used systematically to provide the basis for decisions requiring a view of the future. Thus techniques must be regarded as tools only. The elegance and sophistication of the technique is of little value if the information it is operating on is inappropriate or of poor quality. Similarly, the forecasting effort is wasted if the output is not relevant to the needs of the decision-maker.