Problems of Interpretation

Abstract

There is no disputing that the Soviet Union is now one of the world’s leading sea powers. The emergence of its Navy from relative obscurity to a position where it can pose a credible challenge to the US Navy for mastery of the oceans has been one of the most remarkable features of the post-war period. But, though there has been general agreement that this phenomenon has actually taken place, there remains nonetheless considerable dispute about what it all means. Experts are divided about what the Soviet Navy is for, about its roles and priorities and about how effective it is. They do not agree about what the rise of the Soviet Navy tells us about Soviet policy in general. Since they also assess the level of threat posed by the Soviet Navy quite differently, they often make quite different recommendations as to how the West should react to it. Even though the Soviet Navy is very evidently a new element on the world scene which must be properly understood for the sake of general security, and responded to appropriately, it nevertheless so far remains something of a puzzle. To a large extent the nature of the evidence explains why it is so difficult to arrive at a consensus about the strengths and purposes of the Soviet Navy.