Booms, Slumps and Trends

  • Graham Hallett


One of the recent failings in the analysis of urban economic problems has been an excessively short-term outlook. As in all other types of economic activity, there are cyclical movements, in the supply, demand and price of urban land and buildings. Politicians and journalists, and even economists from J. S. Mill onwards, have regularly extrapolated recent cyclical movements indefinitely into the future, and based policy prescriptions on this prognosis. The few available studies of long-term movements — of land prices, rents, housing supply, etc. — have usually been undertaken by chartered surveyors and geographers, rather than economists, and have remained largely unknown. Let us summarise some of the evidence available.


Interest Rate House Price National Income Construction Cost Land Rent 
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Select Bibliography

  1. J. Parry Lewis, Building Cycles and Britain’s Growth, Macmillan 1965.Google Scholar
  2. O. Marriott, The Property Boom, Hamish Hamilton, 1967Google Scholar
  3. Towards Full Employment and Price Stability O.E.C.D. Paris 1977.Google Scholar


  1. 1.
    Neue Heimat Jahresbericht 1973/4, p. 43.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    R. Goldsmith. The National Wealth of the United States in the Post-War Period, Princeton University Press. 1962. p. 118.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Colin Clark in P. Hall (ed.) Land Values 1966 p. 137.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    J. S. Keiper. The Theory and Measurement of Rent, New York University, 1961.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Clark op. cit. p. 139.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Towards Full Employment and Price Stability O.E.C.D. Paris, 1977. p. 13.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Alex Henney, ‘Reasons for Today’s Housing Shortage’ The Times March 28, 1973. The striking correlation indicated by a graph in this article is reduced if the more meaningful percentage changes in advances are used, and breaks down completely after 1972.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Graham Hallett 1979

Authors and Affiliations

  • Graham Hallett
    • 1
  1. 1.University CollegeCardiffUK

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