The Political Limits to Forecasting

Abstract

Today, everyone lives in greater jeopardy of servitude or extermination than at any recent time in history. More people are simultaneously exposed to common dangers, and a larger number of different perils are occurring in tandem. Threats are thus manifest to the entire species. Most of these hazards evolve from inadvertent effects of technology; not so much from the presence of scientific knowledge and only somewhat from villainy, but rather from ignorance, human error and lack of imagination as to possible future consequences. Because technology is symbiotically and intricately interwoven with human culture, institutions and social processes, intervention to deal with these predicaments is the responsibility of the salient organisations that synthesise and represent collective social choice—the national governments. Indeed, the major choices involving technology are already made by government as to both ends and means.