Abstract
Investment projects in the mining and smelting industries generally have long time horizons, in that five to ten years may pass between initiating an exploration project and having a mine come into production. Thus the industry has a strong interest in looking ahead at future production capacities and technologies and at the market for its products. However, the industry has the problem of desiring good medium- and long-term forecasts while, it seems, being sceptical of the possibility of ever being able to obtain them —a good forecast being, in this context, one which presents a fairly accurate picture of the environment in which the particular company, nation or other group will be operating, so that its own planning can be on a sound footing.
An abridged version of this chapter was published in Futures. See H. Rush and W. Page, ‘Long-term Metals Forecasting: the Track Record, 1910–1964’, Futures 11, August 1979, (4) pp. 321–337.
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References
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© 1979 Science Policy Research Unit, Sussex
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Page, W., Rush, H. (1979). The Accuracy of Long-term Forecasts for Non-Ferrous Metals. In: Whiston, T. (eds) The Uses and Abuses of Forecasting. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04486-3_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-04486-3_10
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