Abstract
All firms and governments dealing with technology have been and are doing technology forecasting. This is because each decision to explore, support, oppose or ignore a technological prospect incorporates the decision-maker’s assumptions about that technology and its viability in the future. These assumptions may be arrived at by explicit forecasting, by rough speculation, by traditional procedure or by neglect.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Notes
Gilfillan, S. C., ‘A Sociologist Looks At Technical Prediction’, in James R. Bright, (ed.), Technological Forecasting For Industry and Government (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1968) pp. 3–34. This excellent summary contains many references to the goals and methods of the early predictors.
Wiener, Norbert The Human Use of Human Beings (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1950 ). More on the origins of ‘automation’ and ‘automatic manufacturing’ and related predictions can be found in
James R. Bright, Automation and Management (Boston: Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University, 1958). See chapter 2 especially.
US National Resource Committee, Technological Trends and National Policy ( Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1937 ) p. 3.
Merchant, Eugene M. ‘Technological Forecasting As An Aid To Equipment and Process Design’ in James R. Bright and Milton F. Schoeman (eds), Guide To Practical Technological Forecasting ( Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1973 ) pp. 291–300.
Whittier, R. J., ‘Semiconductor Memories, The Impact and Momentum of Current Technology’ (Institute of Electric and Electronic Engineers, Inc., Boston, 1976 ).
Behrens, W., Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., The Limits To Growth ( Washington, DC: Potomac Associations, 1972 ).
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 1979 Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bright, J.R., Little, B. (1979). Technology Forecasting as an Influence on Technological Innovation: Past Examples and Future Expectations. In: Baker, M.J. (eds) Industrial Innovation. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03822-0_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03822-0_12
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-03824-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-03822-0
eBook Packages: Palgrave Business & Management CollectionBusiness and Management (R0)