Forecasting pollution

  • Michel M. Benarie
Part of the Air Pollution Problems Series book series (AIRPP)


We must distinguish quite clearly between forecast and calculation. The latter term is used to denote the operation of taking some formula (for example, plume, statistical time series, etc.) and then of substituting into this formula some assumed (for example, for the next winter season, etc.) or meteorologically forcasted parameters. The forecast, on the other hand, is a process which uses knowledge that is available a specific day (for example, past statistical record, that day’s pollution concentration, that day’s meteorological forecast, etc.) to predict (a) a time (for example, the next day, or even a given hour, etc.) and (b) a pollutant concentration for that time. The upper limit of the time span is that for which a forecasting skill can be demonstrated and might be for a few hours or a few days in advance. We exclude from forecasting the climatological estimate of long-term averages, although it is implied that they are often taken into account by the forecaster. In order to be termed a pollution forecast, the pollution concentration estimate must refer to a specific day or hour and not to a probability of occurrence within a given time span.


Wind Speed Sulphur Dioxide United States Environmental Protection Agency Skill Score Ozone Maximum 


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Copyright information

© Michel M. Benarie 1980

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michel M. Benarie
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut National de Recherche Chimique AppliquéeVert-le-PetitFrance

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