Forecasts for Strategy
The null strategy method was advocated in Chapter 12 for analysing the adequacy of the firm’s current plans, postures and markets. Some methods of strategy selection were discussed in Chapter 13. But in neither chapter did we attempt to deal with the problem of forecasting. The future was taken, in those chapters, as a given. While that was appropriate enough in view of the subjects of these two chapters, it is patently clear that the future is not given at all. But the probable future state of the world is crucial to success in strategy selection. Strategic forecasting is necessary—even if it is only intuitive. This chapter considers some approaches to this topic, and suggests the circumstances under which each is best.
KeywordsCurrent Profit Building Material Industry Cross Impact Input Output Table Scenario Writer
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Ansoff, H. I., Managing Surprise and Discontinuity—Strategic Response to Weak Signals, Brussels, European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management, Working Paper 75/21, April 1975.Google Scholar
- Beer, S., Cybernetics of National Development, The Zaheer Lecture, Manchester Business School, 1976.Google Scholar
- Central Statistical Office, Monthly Digest of Statistics, January, 1975, HMSO.Google Scholar
- Cole, S., ‘Accuracy in the Long Run—Where are We Now?’, in Fildes, R. F., and Wood, D., Forecasting and Planning. London: Teakfield, 1977.Google Scholar
- Fildes, R. F., and Wood, D., Forecasting the Business Environment: The National Economy. London: Longman, 1976.Google Scholar
- Lorange, P., Survey Research in Strategy and Planning: Methodological Considerations, Working Paper 73/15, European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management, 1973.Google Scholar
- Milne, T. E., Business Forecasting—A Managerial Approach. London: Longman, 1975.Google Scholar
- Raynaud, H., ‘Long-Range Forecasting Within Organisations’, Futures, 8, No. 5 (1976), 420.Google Scholar
- Sobek, R. S., ‘A Manager’s Primer of Forecasting’, Harvard Business Review, May–June, 1973.Google Scholar
- Wood, D, ‘Forecasting and Planning National Industrial Strategy’, in Fildes, R. F., and Wood, D., Forecasting and Planning. London: Teakfield, 1977.Google Scholar