Abstract
Two developments evident from published articles and from correspondence particularly between Keynes and Hicks,1 indicate that Keynes moved a substantial way back to Robertsonian, and classical, interest theory after 1936, such that he no longer neglected the influence of productivity and thrift upon the interest rate. These were:
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i)
Keynes’ general acceptance of the IS-LM framework put forward by J. Hicks (and later by A. Hansen),2
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ii)
The introduction of the concept of ‘finance’ in discussing the financial provision for the increment in investment in the multiplier process.
In this section we concentrate upon the former by examing the consequences of the Hicks-Hansen framework upon the role of productivity and thrift in affecting output, employment and the rate of interest. The concept of finance is a subject of a later section.
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Loanable Funds Versus Liquidity Preference — The Hicks-Hansen Framework
See in particular JMK, ‘Alternative theories of the rate of interest’, EJ, (June 1937) pp. 241–52 (reprinted in JMK, CW, Vol. XIV, pp. 201–15) and
JMK ‘Mr. Keynes on Finance’, EJ, (June 1938) pp. 314–322.
J. R. Hicks, ‘Mr. Keynes and the classics’, Economica, Vol. 5, (April 1937) pp. 147–55 and
A. Hansen, A Guide to Keynes, Chapter 7, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1953).
JMK, ‘Alternative theories of the rate of interest’, EJ, (June 1937). See also G. Haberler, op cit., p. 216.
DHR, UAT, p. 105, Cf. R. Harrod, Towards a Dynamic Economics, (London: Macmillan, 1948) p. 67.
DHR, ‘Industrial Fluctuation and the Natural Rate of Interest’, EJ, (December 1934) pp. 650–56. (Reprinted in DHR, EMI, pp. 64–74).
Ibid, p. 174, see also JMK, ‘Alternative theories of the rate of interest’, EJ, (June 1937) p. 250.
Taken from DHR, UAT, p. 90, but derived by DHR from an article by J. R. Hicks ‘World Recovery after War — a theoretical analysis’, EJ, (June 1947) pp. 151–164.
DHR, ‘Alternative theories of the rate of interest’, EJ, (September 1937) p. 431.
DHR, ‘Alternative theories of the rate of interest’, EJ, (September, 1937) p. 431. See also DHR, EMI, pp. 165–6.
This problem is commented upon at length in J. Tobin, ‘Liquidity Preference as Behaviour towards Risk’, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 25, (February 1958) pp. 65–86. It prompted Tobin to develop the probability distribution approach.
See DHR, UAT, pp. 78–9 also LEP, pp. 381ff. See also chapter by W. Fellner ‘Employment Theory and Business Cycles’, in A Survey of Contemporary Economics, (edited by H. Ellis), (Philadelphia: Blakiston Co., 1948).
DHR, ‘Comments upon Mr. Johnson’s Notes’, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 19, (1950–1) p. 106.
For further details on this debate see: (i) DHR, ‘Alternative theories of the rate of interest’, EJ, Vol. 47, (1937) pp. 428–36.
(ii) JMK, ‘The “Ex Ante” Theory of the Rate of Interest’, EJ, Vol. 47, (1937) pp. 663–9.
(iii) DHR, ‘Mr. Keynes and Finance’, EJ, Vol. 48, (1938) pp. 314–8.
(iv) JMK, ‘Mr. Keynes and Finance’, EJ, Vol. 48, (1938) pp. 318–22. (v) DHR, ‘Mr. Keynes and the rate of interest’, EMI, pp. 150–187.
E. S. Shaw, ‘False Issues in the Interest-Theory Controversy’, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 46, (1938) pp. 838–56; see also DHR, EMI, pp. 164–5.
JMK, GT, pp. 171–2, pp. 200–1; also J. Robinson, An Introduction to the Theory of Employment, (London: Macmillan, 1937) pp. 76–8.
N. Kaldor, ‘Speculation and Economic Stability’, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 7, (October 1939) pp. 1–27.
See also J. R. Hicks, Value and Capital, (Clarendon Press, 1939) Ch. XI.
See A. Marshall, Principles of Economics, (Macmillan) pp. 81–2. F. Lavington, English Markets, (London: Methuen & Co., 1929) esp. Ch. VI. A. C. Pigou, op cit.
DHR also recognised the liquidity preference theory in the writings of a Spanish Economist. See DHR, ‘A Spanish Contribution to the Theory of Fluctuations’. Economica, (February 1940) pp. 50–65.
See especially DHR, ‘Industrial Fluctuation and the Natural Rate of Interest’, EJ, (December 1934) pp. 650–56. However the remedy may have been found with the aid of JMK.
(See DHR, ‘Some Notes on Mr. Keynes’ General Theory of Employment’, QJE, Nov. 1936, pp. 168–91).
Although it is possible to construct a loanable funds theory which does fit into Keynesian analysis. See J. W. Conard, The Theory of Interest, (Univ. of California Press 1963) Ch. XII.
B. Tew, ‘Interest Rates and Asset Prices’, Economica, Vol. 28, (November 1961) p. 429.
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© 1978 John R. Presley
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Presley, J.R. (1978). Loanable Funds Versus Liquidity Preference — The Hicks-Hansen Framework. In: Robertsonian Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03239-6_18
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03239-6_18
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