Growth Models and their Application to Long-term Planning and Forecasting
A general picture of growth models, their basic types and features, is given in the paper. Possibilities of their implementation at the stage of preliminary long-term planning are discussed, as well as their application to calculations of a highly aggregated long-term plan, i.e. for a period of about ten years. In the last part of the paper a specific class of models based on input-output information is examined. Results of experimental calculations are given, together with discussion of ways and means of utilisation of such models in the practical work of Gosplan.
KeywordsGrowth Model Optimal Trajectory Shadow Price Growth Path Final Consumption
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