Advertisement

Prospects of Economic Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany

Part of the International Economic Association Conference Volumes, Numbers 1–50 book series (IEA)

Abstract

This paper deals with long-term economic growth forecasts for the West German economy, the methods used or which ought to be used, the results yielded, and hypotheses about factors determining the pattern of the future growth process. Long-term forecasting with respect to economic growth is a rather recently established activity in West Germany. For a long time during the post-war period, policy makers regarded economic growth merely as a spontaneous result of the market mechanism which descended like manna. There seemed to be no reason to consider it as a matter of economic policy. Moreover, economists who have taken an interest in quantitative longterm forecasts have run the risk of being suspected of smuggling planning elements into the free market economy. As long as growth rates were sufficiently high, the public interest in growth analysis and growth prediction was very low.

Keywords

Labour Supply Foreign Worker Exchange Rate Policy Simultaneous Equation Model Foreign Labour 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. [1]
    Der Bundesminister für Wirtschaft, ‘Perspektiven des Wirtschaftswachstums in der BRD bis zum Jahre 1980’, Die wirtschaftliche Lage in der BRD, III (Bonn, 1968).Google Scholar
  2. [2]
    Der Bundesminister für Wirtschaft, ‘Perspektiven des Wirtschaftswachstums in der BRD bis zum Jahre 1985’. Die wirtschaftliche Lage in der Bundesrepublik Vierteljahresbericht III (Bonn, 1970). In addition, unpublished background papers containing detailed information about assumptions.Google Scholar
  3. [3]
    Economic Commission for Europe, Structural Trends and Prospects in the European Economy, Economic Survey of Europe in 1969, I (New York, 1970).Google Scholar
  4. [4]
    G. Fels, K.-W. Schatz and F. Wolter, Der Zusammenhang zwischen Produktionsstruktur und Entwicklungsniveau, Versuch einer Strukturprognose für die westdeutsche Wirtschaft, Weitwirtschaftliches Archiv, band 106 (1971) heft 2.Google Scholar
  5. [5]
    G. Gehrig, Ein makroökonomisches Modell für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Schriftenreihe des Ifo-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung, no. 56 (Berlin-Munich, 1963).Google Scholar
  6. [6]
    G. Gehrig and K. C. Kuhlo, Überprüfung der ökonometrischene Projektion von 1962, Ifo-Studien, 18. Jgg. (1972) heft 2.Google Scholar
  7. [7]
    B. Görzig, Die Entwicklung des Wachstumspotentials in den Wirtschaftsbereichen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Analyse und Projektion bis 1980, Beiträge zur Strukturforschung (Berlin, 1972) heft 18.Google Scholar
  8. [8]
    H. Hahn, Vorausschätzung des Bruttosozialprodukts bis 1975 (Munich, 1961).Google Scholar
  9. [9]
    T. P. Hill, ‘Growth and Investment According to International Comparisons’, Economic Journal (June 1964) pp. 287–304.Google Scholar
  10. [10]
    J. W. Kendrick, National Productivity and its Long-Term Projection. Long-Range Economic Projection. A Report of the National Bureau of Economic Research (New York-Princeton, 1954) Studies in Income and Wealth, vol. 16, pp. 98, 67.Google Scholar
  11. [11]
    E. Kuh, ‘The Validity of Cross-Sectionally Estimated Behavior Equations in Time Series Applications’, Econometrica 27 (1959) pp. 197–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. [12]
    K. C. Kuhlo, Die Wachstumsprognose, insbesondere auch die Prognose der Produktivitätsentwicklung, Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, band 25, N.F. (Berlin, 1962) p. 258.Google Scholar
  13. [13]
    O.E.C.D., The Growth of Output 1960–1980 (Paris, 1970).Google Scholar
  14. [14]
    ‘Prognos’, report no. 3, Westeuropa 1985.Google Scholar
  15. [15]
    K.-W. Schatz, ‘Wachstumsbedingungen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich’, Die Weltwirtschaft, heft 1 (1971) pp. 202. 215.Google Scholar
  16. [16]
    P. M. Sommers and D. B. Suits, ‘A Cross-Section Model of Economic Growth’, The Review of Economics and Statistics (1971) pp. 121–8.Google Scholar
  17. [17]
    P.J. Verdoorn, ‘Complementarity and Long-Range Projections’, Econometrica (1956) pp. 428–50.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© International Economic Association 1976

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. Fels

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations