The Role of Economic Factors in Birth-rate Trends and Fluctuations

Abstract

We all think we know something about that mysterious creature we call homo oeconomicus but is he also ἄυθρωπоѕ δημογράϕικοѕ? This certainly is the assumption implicit in any economic analysis of a series of demographic variables. Homo oeconomicus, no doubt, owes his success to the qualities we attribute to him: he is a rational man, well informed, forward-looking, and he is, to boot, in some way quantifiable. He has a holding and husbands it, he earns an income, he saves, he consumes — all of which can be expressed in monetary terms. Even his time can be measured, his time of work, of rest, of leisure, his years of education, his working life, his retirement. Time and money can be related in many ways (cf. Guitton, 1970).

The idea that changes in fertility are a positive function of economic conditions has such innate appeal that it is probably futile to pile up against it’ (Alan Sweezy, 1971)

Translated by Elisabeth Henderson.

Author’s note. The study resulting in the first part of this paper is fully described elsewhere (Leridon, 1973). The author is conscious that the present summary has proved too compressed to avoid certain methodological misunderstandings, which were revealed by the subsequent discussion.