Inverse Probability

Abstract

WE saw that simple induction might be characterized in popular language by saying that if one is proceeding over an extension, but one has no clue as to which part of it one is on, then one is unlikely to be on its extreme edge. This can be brought into relation with our definition of probability by saying that if in those circumstances one believes that one is on the extreme edge, one will much more often be wrong than right, and conversely. This principle is the ground of all our varied expectations in regard to the future; we rightly assume that for the time being the order of events will proceed on the lines that we have been used to heretofore.