A Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the Soviet Economy

Abstract

In the planned economy of the Soviet Union, macroeconomic forecasts have the following main goals:

• (1) To determine a general framework of future development;

• (2) To find out the degree of influence upon future development of inertial tendencies, which come from the period preceding the forecasted period, taking into consideration possible discontinuities or distortions in otherwise stable trajectories;

• (3) To establish some parameters of inter-relations between causes and consequences of economic development;

• (4) To analyse opportunities for the realisation of different economic goals through the forecasting period;

• (5) To obtain a certain system of macroeconomic variables endogenous to the economy but which could be introduced exogenously into the model as control characteristics and which are used directly at the stage of medium-term planning.

The author is a member of Sciences of the Armenian S.S.R.