Political Development and Political Modernisation
To try to determine regularities or patterns in the process of change and thus to try to forecast the turn of future events is a challenge few can resist. We all do it constantly, if unconsciously, in our everyday lives, taking into account this person’s likely form of behaviour, that set of rules and conventions, and many other factors by which to forecast the probable outcome of our affairs. It seems plausible, indeed natural, to extend this method of thinking beyond our immediate affairs to large human concerns — to, say, the history, or economics, or politics of those national organisations of human and material resources we call states. If we are concerned with the internal politics of states we find it difficult to avoid asking, if only as part of our inquiry, whether there are any patterns to be discerned in the past processes of political change. We may also inquire whether these patterns, if any, are at all repetitive — whether, that is to say, they have any predictive value.
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