Abstract
This paper attempts to review briefly what other economists have already written about the international trade of India and Pakistan, to raise some questions which may suggest further empirical work, and to make some assertions for which I cannot now cite any reference. Section I briefly discusses the import policies of India and Pakistan. Section II examines the exports of India and Pakistan to the rest of the world, and section III deals with the benefits to each country of increased trade between them.2 I ignore the international movement of people and of capital. 1950 and 1967, and the index of export prices of the industrial countries rose by 1ΒΈ5 per cent per year in the same period: International Financial Statistics. If one knew the appropriate exchange rate over time, one could compare directly the ratio of imports to G.N.P. over time in India and Pakistan.
We recognize no legitimate demand on the student to spare anybodyβs feelings. Facts should be stated coldly: understatements, as well as overstatements, represent biases.
Gunnar Myrdal, Asian Drama, p. 23
My definition also excludes any βnaturalβ decline in the ratio of imports to domestic production as economic growth occurs because, for example, services become a larger share of G.N.P.
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Notes
For a study of this factor in Pakistanβs development, see Stephen R. Lewis Jr, βEffects of Trade Policy on Domestic Relative Prices: Pakistan, 1951β64β, American Economic Review, LVIII (Mar 1968) 60β78.
Hogan gives a formula for the percentage of excess capacity. For example, if industrial gross investment is growing at an annual rate of 10 per cent, if capital lasts an average of ten years, and if the learning period is two years, then at a point in time only 71 per cent of installed capacity will be used: W. P. Hogan, βSome Results in the Measurement of Capacity Utilizationβ, American Economic Review, LIX (Mar 1969) 183β4.
Charles P. Kindleberger, International Economics (Irwin, 1958) pp. 621β3; Jagdish Bhagwati, βOn the Equivalence of Tariffs and Quotasβ, in Trade, Growth and the Balance of Payments (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1965) pp. 53β67.
Henry Bruton, βProductivity Growth in Latin Americaβ, American Economic Review, LVII (Dec 1967) 1099β1116
Jeffrey G. Williamson, βDimensions of Postwar Philippine Economic Progressβ, Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXXIII (Feb 1969) 93β109.
βThe history of India at all times has provided an example of a country impoverished by a preference for liquidity amounting to so strong a passion that even an enormous and chronic influx of the precious metals has been insufficient to bring down the rate of interest to a level which was compatible with the growth of real wealthβ: J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (London: Macmillan, 1936) p. 337.
Manmohan Singh, Indiaβs Export Trends and the Prospects for Self-Sustained Growth (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1964)
Benjamin I. Cohen, βThe Stagnation of Indian Exports, 1951β1961β, Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXVIII (NOV 1964) 604β20.
In 1948β9, India accounted for 80 per cent of East Pakistanβs foreign trade and 53 per cent of West Pakistanβs foreign trade: M. Akhlaqur Rahman, Partition, Integration, Economic Growth and Interregional Trade (Karachi: Institute of Development Economics, 1963) p. 88.
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Cohen, B.I. (1970). The International Development of India and Pakistan. In: Robinson, E.A.G., Kidron, M. (eds) Economic Development in South Asia. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-00964-0_28
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-00964-0_28
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