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The International Development of India and Pakistan

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Economic Development in South Asia

Part of the book series: International Economic Association Series ((IEA))

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Abstract

This paper attempts to review briefly what other economists have already written about the international trade of India and Pakistan, to raise some questions which may suggest further empirical work, and to make some assertions for which I cannot now cite any reference. Section I briefly discusses the import policies of India and Pakistan. Section II examines the exports of India and Pakistan to the rest of the world, and section III deals with the benefits to each country of increased trade between them.2 I ignore the international movement of people and of capital. 1950 and 1967, and the index of export prices of the industrial countries rose by 1ΒΈ5 per cent per year in the same period: International Financial Statistics. If one knew the appropriate exchange rate over time, one could compare directly the ratio of imports to G.N.P. over time in India and Pakistan.

We recognize no legitimate demand on the student to spare anybody’s feelings. Facts should be stated coldly: understatements, as well as overstatements, represent biases.

Gunnar Myrdal, Asian Drama, p. 23

My definition also excludes any β€˜natural’ decline in the ratio of imports to domestic production as economic growth occurs because, for example, services become a larger share of G.N.P.

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Notes

  1. For a study of this factor in Pakistan’s development, see Stephen R. Lewis Jr, β€˜Effects of Trade Policy on Domestic Relative Prices: Pakistan, 1951–64’, American Economic Review, LVIII (Mar 1968) 60–78.

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  2. Hogan gives a formula for the percentage of excess capacity. For example, if industrial gross investment is growing at an annual rate of 10 per cent, if capital lasts an average of ten years, and if the learning period is two years, then at a point in time only 71 per cent of installed capacity will be used: W. P. Hogan, β€˜Some Results in the Measurement of Capacity Utilization’, American Economic Review, LIX (Mar 1969) 183–4.

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  3. Charles P. Kindleberger, International Economics (Irwin, 1958) pp. 621–3; Jagdish Bhagwati, β€˜On the Equivalence of Tariffs and Quotas’, in Trade, Growth and the Balance of Payments (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1965) pp. 53–67.

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  4. Henry Bruton, β€˜Productivity Growth in Latin America’, American Economic Review, LVII (Dec 1967) 1099–1116

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  5. Jeffrey G. Williamson, β€˜Dimensions of Postwar Philippine Economic Progress’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXXIII (Feb 1969) 93–109.

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  6. β€˜The history of India at all times has provided an example of a country impoverished by a preference for liquidity amounting to so strong a passion that even an enormous and chronic influx of the precious metals has been insufficient to bring down the rate of interest to a level which was compatible with the growth of real wealth’: J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (London: Macmillan, 1936) p. 337.

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  7. Manmohan Singh, India’s Export Trends and the Prospects for Self-Sustained Growth (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1964)

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  8. Benjamin I. Cohen, β€˜The Stagnation of Indian Exports, 1951–1961’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXVIII (NOV 1964) 604–20.

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  9. In 1948–9, India accounted for 80 per cent of East Pakistan’s foreign trade and 53 per cent of West Pakistan’s foreign trade: M. Akhlaqur Rahman, Partition, Integration, Economic Growth and Interregional Trade (Karachi: Institute of Development Economics, 1963) p. 88.

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E. A. G. Robinson Michael Kidron

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Β© 1970 International Economic Association

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Cohen, B.I. (1970). The International Development of India and Pakistan. In: Robinson, E.A.G., Kidron, M. (eds) Economic Development in South Asia. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-00964-0_28

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