Abstract
It is scarcely surprising—given their importance to the welfare and even the survival of individuals—that from the earliest times men have devoted much effort to attempts to predict revolutions. The fact that they were so sudden, spasmodic and drastic, only made men more eager to do so.
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Notes and References
Ruth Montgomery, A Gift of Prophecy; the Phenomenal Jeane Dixon, William Morrow, New York 1965, pp. 1–13.
Tarzie Vittachi, The Fall of Sukarno, Praeger, New York 1967, pp. 105–6.
William Kornhauser, “Revolution and National Development”, paper delivered at Sixth World Congress of Sociology, Evian 1966.
C. Julius Caesar, The Civil War etc., trs. Jane F. Mitchell, Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, Middlesex 1967.
Sigmund Freud, Group Psychology and the Analysis of the Ego, trs. James Strachey, Bantam Books, New York 1965.
Hannah Arendt, On Revolution, Faber and Faber, London 1963.
See also Harold D. Lasswell, Psychopathology and Politics, Viking Press, New York 1960.
T. W. Adorno, Else Brunswik-Frenkel, Daniel J. Levinson and R. Nevitt Sanford, The Authoritarian Personality, John Wiley, New York 1964, 2 vols.
Alfred Vagts, A History of Militarism; Civilian and Military, Hollis and Carter, London 1959.
See also Samuel E. Finer, The Man on Horseback, Pall Mall, London 1962.
E. Victor Wolfenstein, The Revolutionary Personality; Lenin, Trotsky, Gandhi, Princeton University Press, Princeton 1967.
See also the influential Eric Hoffer, The True Believer; thoughts on the nature of mass movements, Harper, New York 1951,
and the oddly named World Revolutionary Elites; Studies in Coercive Ideological Movements, ed. Harold D. Lasswell and Daniel Lerner, The M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass. 1966.
Neil J. Smelser, Theory of Collective Behavior, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London 1962.
Emile Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society, trs. George Simpson The Free Press, New York 1965.
See also Sebastian de Grazia, The Political Community, a study of anomie, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 1963.
Gabriel Almond and James S. Coleman, The Politics of the Developing Areas, Princeton University Press, Princeton 1960.
Carl Leiden and Karl M. Schmitt, The Politics of Violence: Revolution in the Modern World, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 1968, p. 9.
George Sawyer Pettee, The Process of Revolution, Harper Brothers, New York 1938, pp. xi–xii.
Pitrim A. Sorokin, The Sociology of Revolution, J. B. Lippincott Co., Philadelphia and London 1925.
Pitrim A. Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics, III: Fluctuation of Social Relationships, War and Revolution, American Book Co., New York 1937.
Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, Stevens and Sons, London 1960.
Indicators of domestic violence are to be found for various countries in Arthur S. Banks and Robert Textor, A Cross-Polity Survey, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. 1963 and
Bruce M. Russett (ed.), World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators, Yale University Press, New Haven 1964.
Quincy Wright, A Study of War, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 1965, second edn.
Giuseppe Ferrari, Teoria dei periodi politici, Milano-Napoli 1874.
Pitrim A. Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics III, p. 489, c.f. Chorley, op. cit. See inter alia Ivo K. Feierabend and Rosalind K. Feierabend, “Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948–1962; a cross-national study”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, x, No. 3, September 1966, p. 249;
Frank H. Denton and Warren Philips, “Some Patterns in the History of Violence”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, xii, No. 2, June 1968, p. 182.
Harry Horace Eckstein (ed.), Internal War, Problems and Approaches, The Free Press, New York 1964;
see also James N. Rosenau (ed.), International Aspects of Civil Strife, Princeton University Press, Princeton 1964 and the Princeton monographs of
For its theoretical interest in particular see also Raymond Tanter and Manus Midlarsky, “A Theory of Revolution”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, xi, No. 3, September 1967, p. 264.
Irving Louis Horowitz (comp.), The Rise and Fall of Preect Camelot, The M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass. 1967.
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© 1970 Pall Mall Press Ltd, London
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Calvert, P. (1970). The Possibility of Prediction. In: Revolution. Key Concepts in Political Science. Palgrave, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-00918-3_7
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