The Chronology of Growth

Abstract

WITH nothing but estimates of the total of population to fall back on before 1801, even the fact of acceleration of growth, let alone its timing, cannot be established with any exactitude. But because the establishment of a chronology of growth has seemed to demand some priority, a great deal of the scholarly energy put into the study of British population history has, until recently, been directed to this problem. From his PRA data, Rickman himself made two sets of estimates of the total population at ten-yearly intervals to 1780, and at five-yearly intervals there-after (published with the census reports of 1801 and 1841). John Finlaison, an actuary in the National Debt Office of the Treasury, made another which appeared with the 1831 census. Later in the nineteenth century William Farr, the senior official at the Registrar-General’s office, made two more sets which were published with the census reports of 1861 and 1871. A very elaborate recalculation was made by Brownlee in 1915–16, while Griffith prepared another set of figures for his study of English population of 1926. In 1929 Marshall proposed some modifications to the estimates of Farr and Brownlee. Since then Ohlin (1955) has recalculated birth and death rates, Krause (1958) has made use of the material to suggest reinterpretations oftrends in mortality and fertility, while Deane and Cole (1962) have used it in an attempt to throw light on regional population movements.